16 Sep 2010 - Noble seems to have peaked; NOL looks erm...

Noble Group

A very obvious dark cloud cover although its a shame that the volume is low. However with most indicators at oversold region and have begun to crossover. It only makes sense to short.

NOL

YZJ & Cosco rallying up like nobody's business. So everyone is thinking NOL is the laggard? Not really, all 3 rallied up around 31st Aug. Its just that NOL's % increment is lesser than the other 2.

Currently, NOL is trending up within the channel and that its attempting to flirt with the channel's support. IMO, with the indicators favouring a downturn, dont bank too much on this counter.

Everyone's looking at a $2.10 profit margin. Perhaps it pays to be a contrarian.

Something's brewing for Raffles Edu; DBS looks like its going to break out

I dont trade pennies, but this might be an exception.

I always love the Ichimoku Indicators and it's telling me potentially DBS has more upside. In fact there's a hidden gap which I'm darn sure its going to close up.

As always caveat emptor

What I have been trading so far

I really have to apologize that I did not post as promised, so I hope this post makes it up abit albeit too late.
Technical analysis led me to believe that Olam was a great buy and I bought it right before it shot up. However I did not have the foresight to sell it when it was $2.75.

Two days ago, I saw a breakout indicator in golden agri, and I had to queue just before it opened, and true enough, upon opening, it shot up with incredible volume. That indicator was the classic kumo cloud breakout sign.

Of course, talk is so cheap, so I decided to post my trades here to garner some credibility heh heh.

I trade with Lim&Tan so those who use it, will find this user interface familiar. My last trade was today, selling off GAR for $500 profit excluding commisson. If you noticed, I also attempted to buy NOL but with no success and I cancelled my trade at 1230pm today.

The following analysis is not an inducement to buy or sell but it is something that I am looking to take action on. period. It is at your own risk.

Everyone's favourite counter- Genting. Since its excellent financial report, it has rocketed beyond one's wildest dreams. To me however, it will always remain as a kelong counter. Its fine that I missed the boat but when u see a somewhat dark cloud cover, coupled with indicators screaming overbought - you know what to do.

It is however prudent to wait for confirmation of the downtrend because Genting is heavily played by the big boys out there.

Stocks analysis resumes next week!

Terribly busy over the past month; bogged down with work and not to mention laziness.

Big movement on the cards for Singtel?

In my opinion, this one's very straightforward. It could potentially either break-out or break down thanks to a symmetrical triangle pattern formed here. And I'm favouring a break out. Here's why:

1. Technical indicators show there's still room for up size if it happens. Bollinger bands are tightening which complements the current chart pattern.
2. STI has formed a mini inverse H&S. Singtel being a major component would stand to gain if a breakout is confirmed.
3. Q3 optimism on earnings is growing on the whole. Fundamentally, Singtel has done well for the last financial year; it should follow through for 2010 Q3.
4. Singtel is expected to pay out its $80 dividend per lot in August. Price could also potentially be pushed up in advanced.

8th July 2010 - CapitaLand Technical Analysis

Price fluctuations will most probably be kept within the boundaries of a somewhat symmetrical triangle. Volume has begun to decrease slightly; the calm before the storm? The indicators show that a breakout is favoured more as opposed to a breakdown.

Another contrarian look at STI

The market sentiment is moderately bearish, however a surprise looms over the horizon - a potential reverse H&S.

STI continues its bearish signs - Bearish harami after a 1-day knee jerk rally on Yuan.

Singtel potentially forming a H&S?

What goes up must come down?

Is this peak for STI in June? Indicators hint yes. Period

1. GMMA just turned down
2. Stochastics just did a cross over
3. MACD starts to show the first glimpse of negative divergence
4. Ichimoku indicators turned down.
5. Bearish engulfing candle at friday's closing

But but but - incredulously low volume for (5). This means some joker was manipulating it. Retailers who are still holding have yet to dump their shares or staying on the sidelines. Low volume suggests that one should be prudent by waiting a confirmation on monday.

Momoeagle & Holy have also posted their 2 cents worth. Momo uses fibo levels to gauge the possible peak and hypothesize the Elliot Wave count. Holy on the other hand, uses moving averages to gauge STI's next movement. Interesting reads as usual. What's more important is that all of us are bearish. I guess that pretty much sums up everything heh heh ;)

Do take note that weekly chart seems to suggest STI has room for more upside... but thats a story for another day.

Hyflux so power ah?

In 7 trading days, it rebounded, paring 3/4 of the losses. Hyflux holders must be thinking, "Ho seh liao. $4 ai lai liao lah".*sniggers*

Technical indicators shows that this counter is way overbought. The dragonfly doji being a moderate bearish a sign, adds weight to the analysis. However, this requires confirmation. Monday, technical indicators will shed light whether this uptrend is being maintained. Tuesday could be a perfect time to confirm this.

Time to sell CapitaLand & Short KepLand?

I mentioned in an earlier post that KepLand could be primed for shorting. Here's why:

1. Potential double top albeit formed all within a month which might not hold.
2. Hanging man candlestick which requires confirmation
3. MACD has begun to show negative divergence
4. RSI & Stochastics indicate overbought
5. Volume is pathethic, which signifies the rally is artificially manipulated by the big boys
6. MFI shows that money has begun to flow out of this counter.

(1) to (6) are bearish signs and require confirmation.

CapitaLand's closing today resulted in a doji or a half baked gravestone doji - which means this might be the peak.

Golden Agri & Wilmar - What do they have in common?

Based on charts, GAR seems to have broke out from a somewhat descending triangle. Wilmar on the other hand is more obvious. Potential breakout on the cards? Perhaps.

Follow up on CapitaLand

The 38.2% retracement level will be a major resistance.It also coincides with the kumo cloud. However with STI rallying up abit, I expect CapitaLand to close above the 38.2% retracement level. Target price set at 3.79 followed by 3.9.

Let's see how this pans out. I am vested in this.

P/s: KepLand looks like a promising candidate to short. More on this tomorrow.

CapitaLand to pull a surprise?

Initially it looks as if there is a descending triangle being formed here. The decreasing volume seems to support it. Other also look at it as a rectangle pattern - consolidation or a pause from the downtrend before dipping further.

Then somehow last friday, it bounced up, breaking the formation with a decent volume, suggesting perhaps the trend might be gearing towards the positive camp. Is this a fake head? Let see.

• Chaikin money flow index suggests that selling pressure has been weakening. RSI & Stochastics are supporting this claim with the rise in their indicators.
• MACD has a slight positive divergence.
• Guppy short term averages seem poised to meet the long term averages which suggests that price will appreciate to align with the current long term price. 
• $3.50 support has been tested 4 times. Every failed attempt only to serves to make this support stronger. I can only infer that $3.50 is likely the bottom.

The next two days will confirm if there has been a trend change for CapitaLand.

Can you tahan the volatility?

The common patterns we see everyday:

• Up one day, down the next day
• Up for 3 days, down the next day paring all previous 3 days gains

If you're trading full time, then you would love the volatility. Small time investors like me who hold a full time job is best, to stay at the sidelines. The effort vs gain in my humble opinion is not worth it. At this moment as Im typing, DOW looks like it might test the 9800 mark. If that support breaks, its a bear market (!)

Market SEEMS poised to retest May lows

Markets seems poised to retest the new lows and critical supports. This will be the turning point so keep a very close watch.

On a side note, this buying & selling is not worth my time. The paltry gains take up much of my work time; Im better off channelling this effort elsewhere. So im taking a break temporary n walk the talk by keeping vigil on those lows and critical supports - less stressful ;)

All shorts covered; EZRA & Cosco showing bullish harami

US market's performance yesterday, coupled with today's technical rebound rally says it all - a glimpse of bulls coming back.

Of Golden Crosses & Death Crosses

Ok. So STI rebounded today albeit a weak one. So is STI still going to be downtrend? Look no further than some of the popular counters. These counters tell a story and this will pave the way how STI will behave in time to come.

One way is see, is if there are any death crosses. Unfortunately, there are no golden crosses within my radar.

Rotary just had a death cross.(50dEMA cut into the 100dEMA)
CapitaLand - Lagi jialat (50dEMA not only cut into 100dEMA, but also cut into 200dEMA)
SGX already has a death cross (50dEMA cut into the 100dEMA)

And so, I decided to short sell CapitaLand at $3.6. and short SGX at $7.6. Next week huat. I am still also holding some of my shorts that I mentioned here

As for rotary, I shall make a decision at the $0.88 support ;)

Its now quite apparent that the trading/investing community has come to the same conclusion

Regardless of the commentary, hypothetical analysis i.e. here, here:

1. Technical rebound
2. Because of the technical rebound, there's a very good chance that STI's H&S will materialize at the end.

If you're longing, in my humble opinion, take this chance to get out. The experienced gurus have set a rough peak gauge that ranges between 2850 & 2950. It is pointless to find the exact peak point, but surely when STI does hit 2850 one day, its a cue to get ready to either -

1. Get out if you're convinced its Wave C down; or the start of the H&S formation or;
2. Utterly convinced that the bull market is still present and continue loading to take advantage heh.

Master holy has came out with a series of hypothetical scenarios, which I personally think its a very good read.

Of course, one can always take a contrarian view and bet that the rebound will not happen and continue to slide. However by principle, a downtrend would need a bear flag in order to continue its slide. This bear flag is the technical rebound which I have illustrated for Otto Marine in the preceding post.

Alfred Low from POEMS posts a BUY call for Otto Marine. O Rly?

Alfred says $0.58 is a fair value. Hence in fundamental terms, OttoMarine may look undervalued, but technicaly analysis says that this counter still has room for downtrend. Its wiser to wait a little longer

Technical rebound on the cards soon?

Whatever you call it; bear run; downtrend; capitulation. It has to go up abit in order to go down further.
Based on a suite of technical indicators used, STI looks like it's going to rebound and its about to happen very soon. It could be tomorrow, friday or even next monday itself.

For those who think there is still meat left to short the market, then consider the following counters:

1. Cosco has a gap between 1.38 and 1.35. Potentially could be closed

Outlook on selective blue chips & mid caps

This is my simplistic 2 cents worth, so please take it with a pinch of salt.

Everything depends on Nikkei tomorrow morning. This is for shorting preparation on weakness if Nikkei is -ve. Note that I did not advocate to open shorts immediately because (1) whipsaws in the morning; (2) market would have already gape down from the get-go; there could be a chance for a technical rebound. So one has to be careful. Short positions should only be engaged upon confirmation of major supports being broken down and that STI has officially broken the 200dMA - a sign that could confirm further downtrend.

1. NOL - Gap between 1.92 between 1.89. Judging the way the market is behaving; it might move down to close this gap.
2. Rotary has broke the long term trend line and has technically has done a double bottom within the 2 weeks period. If $0.95 support breaks, next major support is $0.865
3. SGX - Seems to have found bottom at $7.51; Expect it to retest $7.51.
4. Singtel - Very strong support at $2.9; if this breaks, primed for a shorting.
5. Noble - Due to bonus issue of shares; Noble's price was re-adjusted to reflect the market capitalization. However, the ignorant retailers took it the wrong way and started dumping en masse - 1.76 support is a major support
6. EZRA - Based on weekly chart, 1.8 is a major support, if it breaks, next major support is at 1.67.
7. CapitaLand - If it breaks 3.55, expect it to retest the major 3.5 support
   

Special note on Wilmar - This counter is severely oversold but is not exactly cheap because the current price was 2008's peak. Expect a technical rebound very soon.

Merkel and her cheebye mouth; Should I behave like a kan chiong spider?

I decided to put the selling on hold yesterday because Europe opened brightly and that Dow Futures were reflecting a strong opening and decided to sell today on a predicted intraday high.

But that intraday high did not happen. Everything came crashing down the moment she decided to ban short selling on certain equity assets. Imagine when I woke up this morning. To my horror, DJIA came crashing down 1% and Nikkei was ang ang all the way. First thing in my head > Hong Gan liao

While this sullied my morning, I kept calm; awaiting for a potential technical rebound. Midway in the afternoon, she says Euro is in danger hence the measures to prevent short selling. Following this, markets ensued with a further selldown.

I also couldnt do anything because I was in a meeting. So how? Lan lan suck thumb, wait for the technical rebound. This could be the perfect opportunity to sell all non dividend holdings and short the weak ones.

17th May 2010 - Singtel

$2.9 is a very important resistance. In fact, today there were a lot of buy queues at this point to discourage the shorties because $2.9 also forms a triple bottom spanning from the Nov '09 to May '10 timeline, which indicates that perhaps this is the bottom for Singtel.

The triple bottom also forms a neckline for a potential, future H&S formation. With the strong 1Q 2010 financial results in view, Singtel might just rebound from here; wait for tomorrow's candle to confirm.

Portfolio Commentary

(1) In a much earlier post, I detected an ascending triangle for MapleTree Logistics, but it did not materialize. I am honestly not very concern about the wild fluctuations for this counter though it was rather tempting to let to go $0.90 back then.

(2) AIMSAMPREIT has closed above the kumo cloud; potentially, it could go higher. Dividend declared at $5.367 per lot - paid on 28th June :D

(1) & (2) are dividend stocks so the price fluctuations should not matter to me; I'm only interested in the dividends.

(3) SGX is showing a bullish harami; it could potentially do a breakout. TP - $8
(4) Rotary currently lingering in the clouds, but with a 3% appreciation; its looking good. I hope it closes the gap at $1.12 - TP - $1.12
(5) CapitaLand - bottom could have been found at $3.51; there's still room to appreciate. TP: $4.

Possibilities waxes for SGX

1. Potential H&S formation with a potential right shoulder
2. There is a gap which will probably be closed.
3. The oval in sky blue represents the ichimoku cloud resistance; I didnt let it overlay the current chart to keep it simple. SGX might do a kumo cloud breakout if it closes the gap.
4. Double bottom formed with the doji - signaling a potential rebound, kindly triggered by the EU bailout fund.
5. MACD has a convincing positive divergence.
6. Stochastics crossed the 20% mark.

This counter have to pay close attention; there is a chance it could turn out as the alternate scenario where it forms the right shoulder and gaps down from there to touch support at $7.52 and rebound from there and break out from the kumo clouds.

Of Short Coverings and New Longs

Closed Noble & EZRA shorts, upon reading that EU came out with a nearly $1 Trillion dollar package to save the Euro. This was a no brainer. I also took the liberty to go long on the following counters as well first thing in the morning today:

1. Rotary at $1.03
2. CapitaLand at $3.65
3. SGX at $7.65

(1) & (2) was due to the bullish engulfing spotted. (3) will be explained in my next post.

Note: The number of lots bought is not mentioned as it is up to my own discretion to disclose.

Rotary & CapitaLand shows a bullish engulfing

On 6th  May, Rotary hit support level at 0.97 as illustrated previously and closed lower forming a spinning top. Today (7th May), Rotary opened much lower but formed a white long candle to close at 1.01. Previously I mentioned based on TA, Rotary is due for a rebound. The outstanding Q1 results helped to materialized this

On the other hand, CapitaLand opened at the $3.5 crucial support and did a technical rebound instantly. It broke the $3.61 resistance and closed above to form a harami.

The mess in Europe is a huge spoiler and could overshadow the potential rebounds for these 2 counters. Next monday will confirm if this is a technical rebound or truely a reversal. However judging from DJIA's current performance, the rebound, sadly could be short lived.

Update: Removed the word - harami from the title for accuracy.

5th May 2010 - Rotary Engineering

Long term wise, Rotary looks kinda bullish, if the ascending triangle formation plays out that is.
Short term wise, it looks bearish bias. History, however has shown has shown that its going to rebound pretty soon; here's why:

1. Rotary seems to rebound when the short term moving average cuts the long term moving average; RSI hits the 30% mark; Stochastics is below 20%.
2. Look at the current decline and see if you agree with me.
3. Of course, if shit happens, rotary should find support at $0.865.

They say CapitaLand is a downtrending stock. Why?

CapitaLand is forming a descending triangle., thats why! There is strong support at $3.61. And today it bounced off that support line to close 2 cents higher.

If $3.61 support is breached, then expected next support at $3.51. If you consider the timeline from Oct 2009, then CapitaLand has formed a triple bottom; it's a very good chance it will do a technical rebound with the green zone as resistance levels.

Victim of an EZRA whipsaw. FML

I bought at 2.05 and the next day it did a technical rebound to $2.10. However I didnt sell, thinking I should hold on a little longer. I set at 1.99 as a cut loss price only to drop further to 1.96 and rebounded up to 2.02 on news that EZRA was overly sold without a solid reason.

Sometimes, shit happens. FML.

Weekly look at STI

I see a potential head & shoulders formation here. Take note, the h&s mentioned earlier is a smaller one within this big one. Tentative supports to take note

STI's performance for 1st week of May

Holyfishshrine infers that STI is in a downtrend judging from the H&S here
Momoeagle says that we may have topped here

I agree with what they say. In fact, I've a very high opinion on these 2 esteemed bloggers and I take their posts seriously. However, STI is still trying its best to hold itself up albeit in a weakly manner. If the bears arnt successful, this H&S aftermath will not materialize and STI might enter consolidation mode for a while.
 
Its all part of the what we call - indecisive mode that STI is experiencing right now. I would just stay out from the market for awhile. Its quite obvious especially when i come out and declare that ill take a gamble of EZRA for a quick buck. And thats 'cause backside itchy heh heh.

But if STI does slide, materializing the H&S, then just enjoy the show and get ready to pick up some bargains.

Am still holding my 10 lots of EZRA

Closed at 2.02. Currently at -300 loss. Cut loss still remains at 1.99. Looks like it might just inch up tomorrow given DJIA's showing tonight

I loaded 10 lots of EZRA @2.05 as a gamble today

Strictly for contra play based on simple common sense logic:

• Greece saga seems to be subsiding; european markets looked promising when they open late afternoon today.
• Influence from DJIA on the Singapore markets tomorrow as I expect it to open +ve and close +ve too
• 4 black candlesticks; the most I give it at most to form another black candlestick making it 5 in a row.
• Previously, I posted on a rounding top and it hit resistance at 2.22 before sliding down to nearly $2 today, hence I expect a technical rebound to 2.10 at least in the form of a white candlestick tomorrow or monday.
• EZRA isnt some chee chong fun company as my colleague puts it.

If shit happens, instructions to broker is to cut loss at $1.99.

Stocks that have/nearly reached to feb 2010 levels thanks to a downgrade on Greece rating as junk

Please note that the list is not exhaustive and geared to my interest; in no order

1. EZRA
2. Yanlord
3. Straits Asia (near)
4. Genting (near)
5. Sinotel
6. Novo (near)
7. CapitaLand (very near)
8. Aztech (near)

Edited on 29th Apr @2240hrs.

1) Ho Bee

After posting yesterday, Yanlord, SAR, Genting, Novo, Aztech rebounded.
That leaves Sinotel, Ho Bee, EZRA & CapitaLand hovering around those areas.

26th Apr 2010 - Another perspective of EZRA

M-A pattern in the works? If prices break the red line, then its a clear indication that this stock is going down further. Else if it rebounds from the support line, it might retrace to potentially form the left side of the A.

23rd Apr 2010 - EZRA's Rounding top worries me

Rounding top supported by 100dEMA
Price broke 100dEMA, then did a technical rebound up and faced resistance of the 100dEMA ($2.24)
Volume shape is inverse of the rounding top thus confirming the rounding top.
This bearish formation could be primed for shorting.

Busy all week. Humble analysis resumes this week!

Brief thoughts; knee jerk reaction by bourses on Goldman Sachs debacle.

Bad call on Cosco

It's evident that shipping sector is in for a rotational play and is now getting a rally. NOL started the ball rolling, followed by cosco and YZJ. I personally opened shorts at 1.58 and stop loss was set at 1.65. On another look, cosco broke out from a bollinger band squeeze.

IMO, although I could afford to lose, however mistakes like that could be costly. With today's closing, cosco has appreciated 33% since 1st Apr, I will concede that it was a bad call to short cosco. You can never go against a breakout.

11 Apr 2010 - Cosco Corp

Cosco's rise is incredulous. From 1st Apr, it rose from $1.24 and closed at $1.51 last friday (9th Apr) This means share price rose by 21% in 1 week+? This sort of rises are common for penny stocks but for a mid cap stock? That's one hell of a run up. Of course I can start hearing people justifying cosco was once an $8 dollar  stock in 2007 (STI was at 3400 points?), hence at $1.51 (STI is now 2971?), its severely undervalued. I wont go into fundamental analysis on this counter since I'm not trained in FA, but personally the prices we saw in 2007 were just artificially inflated during the boom years and is a poor comparison to be used.

What's really interesting lies in the chart. I see a bump & run pattern and thats bearish. I also predict a harami (red horizontal red oval) of some sort tomorrow (12th Apr) and if this plays out then it will confirm the decline? Notice the gap, this could be filled. Other simple supporting factors include:

• Overbought
• Stochastics at 80% mark

If cosco is an uptrending stock, then it will correct, touch the fibonacci support line (38.2%) around the $1.40 mark and rebound. Alternatively, it could also correct further, close the gap before rebounding up to resume the uptrend, invalidating the bump & run pattern.

Either way, cosco looks poised to decline. If cosco opens on a positive note tomorrow, it is an excellent opportunity to open shorts on this counter. Caveat Emptor

Edited: Fibo should be 38.2 and not 36.2

Everywhere seems bullish

Taking a leaf from warren buffet - Be fearful when others are greedy. As the stock market goes on a bull run, more retailers (inexperienced or suckers) start to jump on the bandwagon, making it prime for the smarties to begin unloading.

I've also noticed several stocks have started to shoot up at an incredulous rate. Based on TA, they are getting primed to be corrected. I'll be listing some of them here after I've compiled my analysis.

6th Apr 2010 - Swiber

If this counter dips tomorrow, it may be a good chance to buy. Will post chart tomorrow when I have the time.

*To be updated*

5th Apr 2010 - Cambridge Industrial REIT

Two plausible scenarios:

•  If it closes above 0.475 tomorrow, then it confirms the rounding top formation. Although this is to be shown via a weekly chart, the curve is visible against both daily & weekly charts, hence I left it to show daily instead.
• It can alternatively gap down because of (1) triple top, (2) to play out a somewhat ascending triangle formation? Stochastics shows that its going to cross over? 0.475 is beyond the upper bollinger band.

Purely based on TA, then the chart is short term bearish inclined.

Round up of my analysis so far

1. Previously a Cup & Handle formation was spotted for STI, and today it broke out convincingly closing on a new high of 2968, breaking the triple/quadruple top. Short term, it is a bullish bias. I expect (Elliot Wave 5) to breach the 3000 mark and scale upwards. I might start to be cautious come mid Apr or late Apr where the adage "Sell in May and Go Away" might materialize.
2. Noble group rebounded as expected around the 3.0x region; this confirms 80% of the inverse H&S formation, also making it bullish. The estimated resistance drawn was set at 3.22 which is the neckline. Today it hit 3.21 and closed at 3.19 instead. I expect it to shoot past the neckline, and then cover the gap.
3. Midas is another stock I'm watching closely. It was forming an ascending triangle and this week this formation is being maintained. Am considering to buy in. China is also looking to expand it railway networks and this bugger could prove to be in great demand.
4. I'm vested in MapleTree. Today it formed a doji and is within the rising wedge (bearish) or ascending triangle (bullish) formation, the next few days, i'll be able to get a clearer direction.

2nd Apr 2010 - SGX

SGX has been a laggard blue chip compared to its fellow blue chippie peers i.e. OCBC and Keppel. Ever since hitting the peak of $8.50+, it has fallen to sub $8 and has been erratic since then. However, I spotted something interesting:

1. Potential to pass off as a triple bottom?
2. Inverse Head & Shoulders spotted and currently supported by the 100EMA
3. There's a gap; chances are it might be covered.

(1) & (2) are bullish signs either way. If it rebounds, first resistance at $7.8, followed by $8.0 Previously, it couldnt break out from the Kumo clouds, this time maybe it might be successful. Compared to its all time high of say $16 dollars? Could one easily say there is still value at $7.73?

Meanwhile, I'll be watching this fellow closely.

STI Commentary

On 31st Mar, it seemed like a head fake when STI started to dip. I was taken by surprise, only to rebound back strong to hit a new 52 week high. The good news were most likely the catalyst causing the strong rebound while reinforcing market fundamentals. IMO, market just wants to run away, and it will run as long as there's good news to buoy it along. Well all I can say, the bull run is still intact ;)

Noble on the hand gapped down, but rebounded up with the first white candle. It is nicely resting on the a few support lines. And I took the chance to load some noble today. My reasons are purely based on TA:

• It's oversold; below 30%
• Stochastics is at 20% percentile; history shows it will rebound up
• I personally think 100EMA & Ichimoku kumo cloud support will hold.
• STI to continue its bull run hence noble at some point will be influenced.
• Even if it gets shorted down again, I expect the most to drop another 5% at most.

1st Apr 2010 - MapleTree Logistics

• Signs of a slight rounding top from mid Jan to mid Mar which was a bullish pattern; it dipped abit before a mini breakout. Since then it has been hovering between $0.82 to $0.87.
• Ascending triangle or rising wedge? Time will tell.

30th Mar 2010 - Midas

Brief thoughts; shall elaborate more tomorrow.

• Ascending Triangle
• Double Top
• Positive MACD divergence
• Stochastic crossover
• Doji

30th Mar 2010 - A relook at Noble Group

Previously, I spotted a potential an inverse head & shoulders (H&S) for Noble. This week, my prediction is playing out nicely. I believe the catalyst was the VP joker who decided to sell all his noble shares at 3.1 to some BBs, triggering a gap down.

If you notice, there's a gap. This is what they call a 2 black gapping pattern and is bearish. It gaped down as expected. Today it closed at $3.14 forming a spinning top - indecisiveness again.

As the lower bollinger band meets the 100day moving average, coupled that the ichimoku cloud support (not illustrated) is just a few cents below, could this be the support level for a rebound?

RSI has also breached the oversold region; Stochastics shows an imminent crossover in the 20% percentile range. Putting aside the negative MACD which is a lagging indicator, if my take on STI is proven correct, then by virtue that Noble is a STI component, it will rebound tomorrow, sealing the inverse H&S formation.

Window Dressing imminent?

STI may gap up and close above the last high of 2933 to break the triple top curse. Potential break-out? We shall see

Update (21:20hrs)

My chart nexus for some reason, is not updating today's STI index. However it closed at 2933 which is the 52 week highest, equalling 11th Jan 2010's 2933 closing.

Last week, I predicted a potential cup & handle (C&H) pattern drawn in red. This week, the handle curve was formed, materializing the C&H pattern. Now here's the interesting part:

1. Triple top formations are usually bearish.
2. Prior to forming (1), a cup and handle pattern was established to now form a quadruple top. I got to be honest here; is quadruple top a continuation bearish pattern here?
3. Tomorrow is 31st Mar 2010, which marks the end of the 1st quarter of 2010. This also means potential window dressing in play.
4. I also spotted a bump & run pattern in blue. Bump & run is usually bearish which coincided with the triple top formation.

In terms of chart pattern, this is a square between the bulls & the bears.

Candlestick Analysis
Although I did not have today's candlestick for STI, it is most probably a white candle forming a 3 white soldiers. This is a bullish sign. Prior to that, it was a spinning top that illustrated indecisive-ness.

Elliot Wave Count
Counting from March lows in 2009, the last correction was Wave 4, so this wave up is the final bullish run - Wave 5.

Along with window dressing, my personal take is: STI to break the triple top curse and break out to gain a new high.

25 Mar 2010 - STI

Could this be a bullish sign to come?

• It corrects further, then rebounds up forming a triple top and breaks out convincingly with high volume next week especially window dressing is on the cards or;
• forms a triple top and breaks down from there.

My personal take is the rebound will come very soon and will test the 2933 resistance once again.

Stocks begin the correction?

STI shot up to form a double top, falling a little short of my prediction here. But still, it was on course and subsequently, it faltered at the top; giving bears the signal to come out in force today. My take is, the correction will continue; its a healthy correction. Lets see if the 38.2% fibonacci line is the support, breaking this support will be the 50% mark. Failure to rebound from here will confirm a bearish trend down.

STI put warrants anyone?

On a sidenote, noble group has started the correction. In fact its now at my last sell price - $3.34. Lets see if it drops further. I regreted not opening shorts on this. I'm using work as an excuse here; its tough to balance work & stock market together LOL.

EZRA - 17th Mar 2010

I'm predicting EZRA to keep going up.

STI Commentary

This is interesting, STI closed at 2919, let's see if it can close above 2933 to create a new 52 week high. The bulls seem to be on a run, but the declining volume doesnt bode well. It has to correct, so lets see if it corrects from 2933 onwards.

If the consensus elliot wave count is correct, this could be the last lap of wave 5, which will then mean it is destined to break 3000 barrier before doing the great descend.

I'm personally staying put; investing in high yield defensive countes instead. To me, my investing principle is simple: Make money can already,it does not pay to be greedy.

Noble - 17th Mar 2010

• Noble could be in for a correction and dip to form a a potential right shoulder; if this materialises, then its a buy signal.
• Alternatively, it could go higher to form a potential head to form a potential H&S, by which it will be wise to open shorts then.
  

StarHill Global Reit - 17th Mar 2010

• potential ascending triangle formation
• Might dip as stochastics just crossed over; RSI on the edge of overbought. MACD is positive albeit lagging.

If it dips, it might be a good chance to buy.

STI - 16th Mar 2010

Lets see how this pans out