All shorts covered; EZRA & Cosco showing bullish harami

US market's performance yesterday, coupled with today's technical rebound rally says it all - a glimpse of bulls coming back.

Of Golden Crosses & Death Crosses

Ok. So STI rebounded today albeit a weak one. So is STI still going to be downtrend? Look no further than some of the popular counters. These counters tell a story and this will pave the way how STI will behave in time to come.

One way is see, is if there are any death crosses. Unfortunately, there are no golden crosses within my radar.

Rotary just had a death cross.(50dEMA cut into the 100dEMA)
CapitaLand - Lagi jialat (50dEMA not only cut into 100dEMA, but also cut into 200dEMA)
SGX already has a death cross (50dEMA cut into the 100dEMA)

And so, I decided to short sell CapitaLand at $3.6. and short SGX at $7.6. Next week huat. I am still also holding some of my shorts that I mentioned here

As for rotary, I shall make a decision at the $0.88 support ;)

Its now quite apparent that the trading/investing community has come to the same conclusion

Regardless of the commentary, hypothetical analysis i.e. here, here:

1. Technical rebound
2. Because of the technical rebound, there's a very good chance that STI's H&S will materialize at the end.

If you're longing, in my humble opinion, take this chance to get out. The experienced gurus have set a rough peak gauge that ranges between 2850 & 2950. It is pointless to find the exact peak point, but surely when STI does hit 2850 one day, its a cue to get ready to either -

1. Get out if you're convinced its Wave C down; or the start of the H&S formation or;
2. Utterly convinced that the bull market is still present and continue loading to take advantage heh.

Master holy has came out with a series of hypothetical scenarios, which I personally think its a very good read.

Of course, one can always take a contrarian view and bet that the rebound will not happen and continue to slide. However by principle, a downtrend would need a bear flag in order to continue its slide. This bear flag is the technical rebound which I have illustrated for Otto Marine in the preceding post.

Alfred Low from POEMS posts a BUY call for Otto Marine. O Rly?

Alfred says $0.58 is a fair value. Hence in fundamental terms, OttoMarine may look undervalued, but technicaly analysis says that this counter still has room for downtrend. Its wiser to wait a little longer

Technical rebound on the cards soon?

Whatever you call it; bear run; downtrend; capitulation. It has to go up abit in order to go down further.
Based on a suite of technical indicators used, STI looks like it's going to rebound and its about to happen very soon. It could be tomorrow, friday or even next monday itself.

For those who think there is still meat left to short the market, then consider the following counters:

1. Cosco has a gap between 1.38 and 1.35. Potentially could be closed

Outlook on selective blue chips & mid caps

This is my simplistic 2 cents worth, so please take it with a pinch of salt.

Everything depends on Nikkei tomorrow morning. This is for shorting preparation on weakness if Nikkei is -ve. Note that I did not advocate to open shorts immediately because (1) whipsaws in the morning; (2) market would have already gape down from the get-go; there could be a chance for a technical rebound. So one has to be careful. Short positions should only be engaged upon confirmation of major supports being broken down and that STI has officially broken the 200dMA - a sign that could confirm further downtrend.

1. NOL - Gap between 1.92 between 1.89. Judging the way the market is behaving; it might move down to close this gap.
2. Rotary has broke the long term trend line and has technically has done a double bottom within the 2 weeks period. If $0.95 support breaks, next major support is $0.865
3. SGX - Seems to have found bottom at $7.51; Expect it to retest $7.51.
4. Singtel - Very strong support at $2.9; if this breaks, primed for a shorting.
5. Noble - Due to bonus issue of shares; Noble's price was re-adjusted to reflect the market capitalization. However, the ignorant retailers took it the wrong way and started dumping en masse - 1.76 support is a major support
6. EZRA - Based on weekly chart, 1.8 is a major support, if it breaks, next major support is at 1.67.
7. CapitaLand - If it breaks 3.55, expect it to retest the major 3.5 support
   

Special note on Wilmar - This counter is severely oversold but is not exactly cheap because the current price was 2008's peak. Expect a technical rebound very soon.

Merkel and her cheebye mouth; Should I behave like a kan chiong spider?

I decided to put the selling on hold yesterday because Europe opened brightly and that Dow Futures were reflecting a strong opening and decided to sell today on a predicted intraday high.

But that intraday high did not happen. Everything came crashing down the moment she decided to ban short selling on certain equity assets. Imagine when I woke up this morning. To my horror, DJIA came crashing down 1% and Nikkei was ang ang all the way. First thing in my head > Hong Gan liao

While this sullied my morning, I kept calm; awaiting for a potential technical rebound. Midway in the afternoon, she says Euro is in danger hence the measures to prevent short selling. Following this, markets ensued with a further selldown.

I also couldnt do anything because I was in a meeting. So how? Lan lan suck thumb, wait for the technical rebound. This could be the perfect opportunity to sell all non dividend holdings and short the weak ones.

17th May 2010 - Singtel

$2.9 is a very important resistance. In fact, today there were a lot of buy queues at this point to discourage the shorties because $2.9 also forms a triple bottom spanning from the Nov '09 to May '10 timeline, which indicates that perhaps this is the bottom for Singtel.

The triple bottom also forms a neckline for a potential, future H&S formation. With the strong 1Q 2010 financial results in view, Singtel might just rebound from here; wait for tomorrow's candle to confirm.

Portfolio Commentary

(1) In a much earlier post, I detected an ascending triangle for MapleTree Logistics, but it did not materialize. I am honestly not very concern about the wild fluctuations for this counter though it was rather tempting to let to go $0.90 back then.

(2) AIMSAMPREIT has closed above the kumo cloud; potentially, it could go higher. Dividend declared at $5.367 per lot - paid on 28th June :D

(1) & (2) are dividend stocks so the price fluctuations should not matter to me; I'm only interested in the dividends.

(3) SGX is showing a bullish harami; it could potentially do a breakout. TP - $8
(4) Rotary currently lingering in the clouds, but with a 3% appreciation; its looking good. I hope it closes the gap at $1.12 - TP - $1.12
(5) CapitaLand - bottom could have been found at $3.51; there's still room to appreciate. TP: $4.

Possibilities waxes for SGX

1. Potential H&S formation with a potential right shoulder
2. There is a gap which will probably be closed.
3. The oval in sky blue represents the ichimoku cloud resistance; I didnt let it overlay the current chart to keep it simple. SGX might do a kumo cloud breakout if it closes the gap.
4. Double bottom formed with the doji - signaling a potential rebound, kindly triggered by the EU bailout fund.
5. MACD has a convincing positive divergence.
6. Stochastics crossed the 20% mark.

This counter have to pay close attention; there is a chance it could turn out as the alternate scenario where it forms the right shoulder and gaps down from there to touch support at $7.52 and rebound from there and break out from the kumo clouds.

Of Short Coverings and New Longs

Closed Noble & EZRA shorts, upon reading that EU came out with a nearly $1 Trillion dollar package to save the Euro. This was a no brainer. I also took the liberty to go long on the following counters as well first thing in the morning today:

1. Rotary at $1.03
2. CapitaLand at $3.65
3. SGX at $7.65

(1) & (2) was due to the bullish engulfing spotted. (3) will be explained in my next post.

Note: The number of lots bought is not mentioned as it is up to my own discretion to disclose.

Rotary & CapitaLand shows a bullish engulfing

On 6th  May, Rotary hit support level at 0.97 as illustrated previously and closed lower forming a spinning top. Today (7th May), Rotary opened much lower but formed a white long candle to close at 1.01. Previously I mentioned based on TA, Rotary is due for a rebound. The outstanding Q1 results helped to materialized this

On the other hand, CapitaLand opened at the $3.5 crucial support and did a technical rebound instantly. It broke the $3.61 resistance and closed above to form a harami.

The mess in Europe is a huge spoiler and could overshadow the potential rebounds for these 2 counters. Next monday will confirm if this is a technical rebound or truely a reversal. However judging from DJIA's current performance, the rebound, sadly could be short lived.

Update: Removed the word - harami from the title for accuracy.

5th May 2010 - Rotary Engineering

Long term wise, Rotary looks kinda bullish, if the ascending triangle formation plays out that is.
Short term wise, it looks bearish bias. History, however has shown has shown that its going to rebound pretty soon; here's why:

1. Rotary seems to rebound when the short term moving average cuts the long term moving average; RSI hits the 30% mark; Stochastics is below 20%.
2. Look at the current decline and see if you agree with me.
3. Of course, if shit happens, rotary should find support at $0.865.

They say CapitaLand is a downtrending stock. Why?

CapitaLand is forming a descending triangle., thats why! There is strong support at $3.61. And today it bounced off that support line to close 2 cents higher.

If $3.61 support is breached, then expected next support at $3.51. If you consider the timeline from Oct 2009, then CapitaLand has formed a triple bottom; it's a very good chance it will do a technical rebound with the green zone as resistance levels.

Victim of an EZRA whipsaw. FML

I bought at 2.05 and the next day it did a technical rebound to $2.10. However I didnt sell, thinking I should hold on a little longer. I set at 1.99 as a cut loss price only to drop further to 1.96 and rebounded up to 2.02 on news that EZRA was overly sold without a solid reason.

Sometimes, shit happens. FML.

Weekly look at STI

I see a potential head & shoulders formation here. Take note, the h&s mentioned earlier is a smaller one within this big one. Tentative supports to take note

STI's performance for 1st week of May

Holyfishshrine infers that STI is in a downtrend judging from the H&S here
Momoeagle says that we may have topped here

I agree with what they say. In fact, I've a very high opinion on these 2 esteemed bloggers and I take their posts seriously. However, STI is still trying its best to hold itself up albeit in a weakly manner. If the bears arnt successful, this H&S aftermath will not materialize and STI might enter consolidation mode for a while.
 
Its all part of the what we call - indecisive mode that STI is experiencing right now. I would just stay out from the market for awhile. Its quite obvious especially when i come out and declare that ill take a gamble of EZRA for a quick buck. And thats 'cause backside itchy heh heh.

But if STI does slide, materializing the H&S, then just enjoy the show and get ready to pick up some bargains.

Am still holding my 10 lots of EZRA

Closed at 2.02. Currently at -300 loss. Cut loss still remains at 1.99. Looks like it might just inch up tomorrow given DJIA's showing tonight