I loaded 10 lots of EZRA @2.05 as a gamble today

Strictly for contra play based on simple common sense logic:

• Greece saga seems to be subsiding; european markets looked promising when they open late afternoon today.
• Influence from DJIA on the Singapore markets tomorrow as I expect it to open +ve and close +ve too
• 4 black candlesticks; the most I give it at most to form another black candlestick making it 5 in a row.
• Previously, I posted on a rounding top and it hit resistance at 2.22 before sliding down to nearly $2 today, hence I expect a technical rebound to 2.10 at least in the form of a white candlestick tomorrow or monday.
• EZRA isnt some chee chong fun company as my colleague puts it.

If shit happens, instructions to broker is to cut loss at $1.99.

Stocks that have/nearly reached to feb 2010 levels thanks to a downgrade on Greece rating as junk

Please note that the list is not exhaustive and geared to my interest; in no order

1. EZRA
2. Yanlord
3. Straits Asia (near)
4. Genting (near)
5. Sinotel
6. Novo (near)
7. CapitaLand (very near)
8. Aztech (near)

Edited on 29th Apr @2240hrs.

1) Ho Bee

After posting yesterday, Yanlord, SAR, Genting, Novo, Aztech rebounded.
That leaves Sinotel, Ho Bee, EZRA & CapitaLand hovering around those areas.

26th Apr 2010 - Another perspective of EZRA

M-A pattern in the works? If prices break the red line, then its a clear indication that this stock is going down further. Else if it rebounds from the support line, it might retrace to potentially form the left side of the A.

23rd Apr 2010 - EZRA's Rounding top worries me

Rounding top supported by 100dEMA
Price broke 100dEMA, then did a technical rebound up and faced resistance of the 100dEMA ($2.24)
Volume shape is inverse of the rounding top thus confirming the rounding top.
This bearish formation could be primed for shorting.

Busy all week. Humble analysis resumes this week!

Brief thoughts; knee jerk reaction by bourses on Goldman Sachs debacle.

Bad call on Cosco

It's evident that shipping sector is in for a rotational play and is now getting a rally. NOL started the ball rolling, followed by cosco and YZJ. I personally opened shorts at 1.58 and stop loss was set at 1.65. On another look, cosco broke out from a bollinger band squeeze.

IMO, although I could afford to lose, however mistakes like that could be costly. With today's closing, cosco has appreciated 33% since 1st Apr, I will concede that it was a bad call to short cosco. You can never go against a breakout.

11 Apr 2010 - Cosco Corp

Cosco's rise is incredulous. From 1st Apr, it rose from $1.24 and closed at $1.51 last friday (9th Apr) This means share price rose by 21% in 1 week+? This sort of rises are common for penny stocks but for a mid cap stock? That's one hell of a run up. Of course I can start hearing people justifying cosco was once an $8 dollar  stock in 2007 (STI was at 3400 points?), hence at $1.51 (STI is now 2971?), its severely undervalued. I wont go into fundamental analysis on this counter since I'm not trained in FA, but personally the prices we saw in 2007 were just artificially inflated during the boom years and is a poor comparison to be used.

What's really interesting lies in the chart. I see a bump & run pattern and thats bearish. I also predict a harami (red horizontal red oval) of some sort tomorrow (12th Apr) and if this plays out then it will confirm the decline? Notice the gap, this could be filled. Other simple supporting factors include:

• Overbought
• Stochastics at 80% mark

If cosco is an uptrending stock, then it will correct, touch the fibonacci support line (38.2%) around the $1.40 mark and rebound. Alternatively, it could also correct further, close the gap before rebounding up to resume the uptrend, invalidating the bump & run pattern.

Either way, cosco looks poised to decline. If cosco opens on a positive note tomorrow, it is an excellent opportunity to open shorts on this counter. Caveat Emptor

Edited: Fibo should be 38.2 and not 36.2

Everywhere seems bullish

Taking a leaf from warren buffet - Be fearful when others are greedy. As the stock market goes on a bull run, more retailers (inexperienced or suckers) start to jump on the bandwagon, making it prime for the smarties to begin unloading.

I've also noticed several stocks have started to shoot up at an incredulous rate. Based on TA, they are getting primed to be corrected. I'll be listing some of them here after I've compiled my analysis.

6th Apr 2010 - Swiber

If this counter dips tomorrow, it may be a good chance to buy. Will post chart tomorrow when I have the time.

*To be updated*

5th Apr 2010 - Cambridge Industrial REIT

Two plausible scenarios:

•  If it closes above 0.475 tomorrow, then it confirms the rounding top formation. Although this is to be shown via a weekly chart, the curve is visible against both daily & weekly charts, hence I left it to show daily instead.
• It can alternatively gap down because of (1) triple top, (2) to play out a somewhat ascending triangle formation? Stochastics shows that its going to cross over? 0.475 is beyond the upper bollinger band.

Purely based on TA, then the chart is short term bearish inclined.

Round up of my analysis so far

1. Previously a Cup & Handle formation was spotted for STI, and today it broke out convincingly closing on a new high of 2968, breaking the triple/quadruple top. Short term, it is a bullish bias. I expect (Elliot Wave 5) to breach the 3000 mark and scale upwards. I might start to be cautious come mid Apr or late Apr where the adage "Sell in May and Go Away" might materialize.
2. Noble group rebounded as expected around the 3.0x region; this confirms 80% of the inverse H&S formation, also making it bullish. The estimated resistance drawn was set at 3.22 which is the neckline. Today it hit 3.21 and closed at 3.19 instead. I expect it to shoot past the neckline, and then cover the gap.
3. Midas is another stock I'm watching closely. It was forming an ascending triangle and this week this formation is being maintained. Am considering to buy in. China is also looking to expand it railway networks and this bugger could prove to be in great demand.
4. I'm vested in MapleTree. Today it formed a doji and is within the rising wedge (bearish) or ascending triangle (bullish) formation, the next few days, i'll be able to get a clearer direction.

2nd Apr 2010 - SGX

SGX has been a laggard blue chip compared to its fellow blue chippie peers i.e. OCBC and Keppel. Ever since hitting the peak of $8.50+, it has fallen to sub $8 and has been erratic since then. However, I spotted something interesting:

1. Potential to pass off as a triple bottom?
2. Inverse Head & Shoulders spotted and currently supported by the 100EMA
3. There's a gap; chances are it might be covered.

(1) & (2) are bullish signs either way. If it rebounds, first resistance at $7.8, followed by $8.0 Previously, it couldnt break out from the Kumo clouds, this time maybe it might be successful. Compared to its all time high of say $16 dollars? Could one easily say there is still value at $7.73?

Meanwhile, I'll be watching this fellow closely.

STI Commentary

On 31st Mar, it seemed like a head fake when STI started to dip. I was taken by surprise, only to rebound back strong to hit a new 52 week high. The good news were most likely the catalyst causing the strong rebound while reinforcing market fundamentals. IMO, market just wants to run away, and it will run as long as there's good news to buoy it along. Well all I can say, the bull run is still intact ;)

Noble on the hand gapped down, but rebounded up with the first white candle. It is nicely resting on the a few support lines. And I took the chance to load some noble today. My reasons are purely based on TA:

• It's oversold; below 30%
• Stochastics is at 20% percentile; history shows it will rebound up
• I personally think 100EMA & Ichimoku kumo cloud support will hold.
• STI to continue its bull run hence noble at some point will be influenced.
• Even if it gets shorted down again, I expect the most to drop another 5% at most.

1st Apr 2010 - MapleTree Logistics

• Signs of a slight rounding top from mid Jan to mid Mar which was a bullish pattern; it dipped abit before a mini breakout. Since then it has been hovering between $0.82 to $0.87.
• Ascending triangle or rising wedge? Time will tell.